Tue, Oct 29, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 14 | 015 | 25 | 324 |
| NYI | 09 | 27 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:40NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Matt Carkner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:19NYITravis HamonicAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:59NYRRyan McDonaghPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 13:46NYRBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:45NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:03NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:31NYIKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:25NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:40NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30NYITravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P3 4:29NYIKyle Okposo: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:44NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:44NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:32NYRMats Zuccarello: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:00NYRBrad Richards: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJohn Tavares: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:12
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Pouliot – Hagelin11:25
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Dorsett2:45
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
- Boyle – Brassard – Miller7:01
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh14:41
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman13:40
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Moore12:10
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Nelson6:03
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner7:57
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey10:43
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares12:36
xG 0.31–0.68 (32%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Hickey8:07
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hickey2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:59
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).