Tue, Oct 29, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 19 | 09 | 127 |
| MTL | 19 | 112 | 03 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Raphael Diaz, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 12:55MTLRene BourqueGWGAssists: Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 17:27DALCody EakinAssists: Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:40MTLFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:40DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:06DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:26DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:19DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 11:48MTLDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
- P3 17:39MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:39DALKari Lehtonen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Peverley – Nichushkin12:50
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin13:38
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – MacDermid4:54
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin9:38
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn16:02
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Daley14:22
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon15:17
xG 0.13–0.81 (14%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:20
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Bourque – Desharnais – Leblanc14:08
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival11:29
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Blunden – White – Holland6:38
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 0–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:43
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
- Gorges – Diaz12:33
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Gorges2:31
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).