Tue, Oct 29, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 5, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 311 | 111 | 537 |
| CHI | 112 | 215 | 313 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 19:00OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:51OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–1
- P2 7:41CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 10:19OTTJoe CorvoAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 11:14OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 14:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 1:20CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- P3 9:13CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–5
- P3 14:10CHIAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Jeremy Morin · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–6
- P3 14:23OTTZack SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:02CHISheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:02OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:45OTTChris Neil: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:57CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49OTTDerek Grant: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pirri won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – Smith – Conacher10:55
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Zibanejad12:16
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Greening – Condra – Grant8:36
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Ryan12:43
xG 0.20–0.70 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:30
xG 0.90–0.70 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Phillips – Cowen2:49
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Corvo – Cowen11:03
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews15:09
xG 1.69–0.36 (82%)attempts 21–11goals 4–2
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw2:21
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bickell – Morin – Shaw8:03
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Mills – Kruger – Bollig7:38
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson15:43
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Keith – Seabrook19:07
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Leddy11:24
xG 0.78–0.99 (44%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).