Tue, Oct 29, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 09 | 19 | 223 |
| STL | 110 | 010 | 213 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Ryan Reaves, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:20WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P3 4:16STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 10:27WPGBryan LittleSHAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 19:00STLAlexander SteenPPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:39WPGToby Enstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:50STLBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:50STLDerek Roy: Interference2 min
- P1 11:57WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:20STLBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:06STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:58STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:43WPGMatt Halischuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:58WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:31WPGDevin Setoguchi: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:47WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Halischuk – Scheifele5:22
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Setoguchi – Little10:44
xG 0.57–0.20 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane9:50
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome13:41
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:51
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Pardy8:58
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Cracknell – Reaves4:29
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart5:08
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:47
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:43
xG 0.28–0.77 (26%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Shattenkirk9:54
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Leopold – Polak12:48
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:05
xG 0.68–1.12 (38%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).