Tue, Oct 29, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 29 | 15 | 426 |
| EDM | 014 | 010 | 019 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 1:41TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 8:42TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 6:14TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:50TORJake Gardiner: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:50EDMNail Yakupov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:00EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:27TORCody Franson: Kneeing2 min
- P3 11:42EDMLuke Gazdic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:42TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri10:29
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 13–19goals 3–0
- Orr – McLaren – Smith6:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond12:57
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- McClement – Lupul – Ashton12:16
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Gardiner15:18
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:22
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Ranger – Gunnarsson2:27
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Jones – Nugent-Hopkins9:29
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov2:36
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gordon – Eager – Arcobello4:46
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Eager – Gazdic – Acton3:35
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrebeshkov – Smid4:13
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Grebeshkov – Schultz2:18
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz12:42
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).