Wed, Oct 30, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 010 | 26 | 223 |
| PIT | 013 | 19 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:54PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 1:05BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 11:00PITBrandon SutterAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 17:58PITJussi JokinenGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:17BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:15BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:48PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:48BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:23PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:23BOSJordan Caron: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:43BOSShawn Thornton: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:12PITKris Letang: Diving2 min
- P3 9:12BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:42
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:32
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic15:02
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Caron9:02
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – Hamilton14:27
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:47
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby14:02
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna10:35
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Adams – Glass – Sutter8:19
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang13:51
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Maatta8:47
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin16:42
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).