Wed, Oct 30, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 26 | 09 | 227 |
| VAN | 17 | 06 | 07 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:12VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Stanton · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:37DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Brendan Smith, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:58DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:24VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P1 7:07DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:31DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
- P3 2:03DETBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:42VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:34DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Andersson – Tatar9:36
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg14:36
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Zetterberg2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Glendening4:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – DeKeyser19:33
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith12:26
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:06
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Santorelli6:59
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Sedin – Sedin – Kesler12:05
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Richardson – Kassian – Welsh4:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows3:53
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler2:36
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton9:37
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Edler – Garrison12:12
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).