Wed, Oct 30, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 18 | 03 | 00 | 320 |
| LAK | 18 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Logan Couture, Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 2:32LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Justin Williams · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 11:27SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 3:15LAKJarret StollAssists: Slava Voynov, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:04SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 12:21LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:32LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:04SJSMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P1 12:11LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:11SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:21SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:18LAKWillie Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39SJSJames Sheppard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:22LAKKyle Clifford: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36SJSTommy Wingels: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:00SJSJames Sheppard: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:30LAKDaniel Carcillo: Boarding2 min
- OT 0:53SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kennedy – Couture10:16
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Thornton – Sheppard – Hertl10:49
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Havlat – Pavelski – Wingels10:20
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Brown – Desjardins – McCarthy6:15
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:12
xG 0.86–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Hannan – Demers2:50
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Stuart – Irwin2:46
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kopitar – King8:35
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Carter – Richards – Carcillo2:59
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fraser – Frattin – Clifford4:03
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Lewis6:50
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Doughty12:25
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Greene12:31
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Regehr – Voynov13:28
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).