Fri, Nov 1, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 7, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 14 | 515 | 113 | 732 |
| PHI | 08 | 09 | 013 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:28WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:24WSHJoel WardAssists: Jason Chimera, Mikhail Grabovski · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 2:44WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 3:49WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Eric Fehr, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 16:25WSHJoel WardAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P2 18:20WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.35 xG6–0
- P3 5:23WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.41 xG7–0
Penalties (31)
- P1 6:39WSHNate Schmidt: Interference2 min
- P1 11:08WSHJason Chimera: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:32PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P2 1:58PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:00WSHAaron Volpatti: Interference2 min
- P2 12:30PHIMichael Raffl: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:17WSHAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17PHISteve Downie: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 17:17PHISteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17PHISteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:32WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:35PHIZac Rinaldo: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31PHIRay Emery: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 5:31PHIRay Emery: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:31PHIRay Emery: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31PHIRay Emery: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31PHIRay Emery: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31WSHSteve Oleksy: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31PHIVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31PHIVincent Lecavalier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31WSHBraden Holtby: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31PHIBrayden Schenn: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31WSHAlexander Urbom: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31WSHAlexander Urbom: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:31WSHAaron Volpatti: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:13PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:53WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski10:17
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 3–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson6:27
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Erat – Fehr – Backstrom7:31
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson7:05
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:13
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Urbom – Oleksy7:02
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt15:32
xG 0.36–0.63 (37%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Rinaldo – Raffl5:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Downie – Giroux5:04
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier7:23
xG 0.27–0.26 (50%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek6:18
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Gustafsson7:52
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gustafsson4:59
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Streit3:45
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).