Fri, Nov 1, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 116 | 213 | 332 |
| CAR | 05 | 012 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:54TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Nate Thompson, B.J. Crombeen · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 11:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 17:14TBLAlex KillornAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:21CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:07TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:25TBLMartin St. Louis: Interference2 min
- P2 5:06CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:06TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:00CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:00TBLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:03TBLMark Barberio: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:44CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos9:31
xG 2.04–0.30 (87%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Malone – Filppula – Purcell4:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik2:11
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson4:18
xG 0.21–0.34 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman12:01
xG 1.04–0.38 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio10:45
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Barberio – Hedman2:31
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal8:43
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Semin – Staal2:12
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Sutter – Bowman2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Gerbe2:00
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Murphy11:15
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Harrison2:47
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – Murphy2:28
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).