Fri, Nov 1, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 018 | 325 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 557 |
| OTT | 29 | 29 | 09 | 04 | 0 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38OTTErik CondraAssists: Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:40OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Phillips · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 9:07NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 9:35NYIMatt MartinAssists: Matt Carkner, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 12:34OTTBobby RyanAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 14:47OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 18:24NYIPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Matt Donovan, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 3:14NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Thomas Hickey, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 2. NYI Thomas Vanek stopped
- 3. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 5. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:23NYIThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:21OTTEric Gryba: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:03NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:41OTTMilan Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:54OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:54NYICal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:57OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 19:04OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares14:43
xG 1.20–0.43 (73%)attempts 30–10goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey7:55
xG 0.83–0.33 (72%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Nelson9:27
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner8:21
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Hickey12:03
xG 0.70–0.10 (87%)attempts 20–3goals 1–0
- Martinek – Donovan12:10
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:06
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Spezza – Greening2:50
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris11:46
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Neil – Spezza – Grant2:32
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Spezza – Conacher4:46
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Wiercioch12:51
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Gryba – Cowen13:58
xG 0.38–0.83 (31%)attempts 10–26goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson14:10
xG 0.47–1.38 (25%)attempts 13–20goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).