Fri, Nov 1, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 4, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 38 | 05 | 423 |
| FLA | 011 | 010 | 010 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:41STLDerek RoyGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:21STLChris StewartAssists: Barret Jackman, Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 7:06STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: David Backes, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 10:42STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Slap, 0.30 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:42STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:44FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45FLAScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:28STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:58FLAJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:55
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:50
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Cracknell – Reaves8:36
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart9:03
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:32
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk15:26
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Cole13:57
xG 0.07–0.79 (8%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Goc – Matthias10:18
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Boyes – Winchester9:58
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Huberdeau – Barkov10:56
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Versteeg – Bjugstad7:31
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Kulikov6:46
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Weaver7:17
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Gilbert7:26
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).