Fri, Nov 1, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 15 | 08 | 13 | 329 |
| DAL | 04 | 08 | 216 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22COLPaul StastnyAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jan Hejda · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 18:41COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 3:57DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:31DALTyler SeguinAssists: Rich Peverley, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 3:36COLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Nate Guenin, Ryan Wilson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:09DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:10DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:52COLRyan Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:26DALSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
- P3 13:57DALRich Peverley: Holding2 min
- P3 16:33DALAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:33COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:33COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene14:49
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog10:24
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon10:59
xG 0.38–1.08 (26%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Benoit7:41
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Guenin – Wilson12:28
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Hejda – Johnson14:39
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Benn – Seguin5:27
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin3:21
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Roussel – Chiasson – Eakin5:25
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Peverley – Nichushkin5:17
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Daley11:17
xG 1.12–0.09 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon15:37
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Benn17:19
xG 0.31–0.78 (29%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).