Fri, Nov 1, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 4, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 25 | 07 | 210 | 422 |
| CGY | 012 | 26 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 17:15DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 10:15CGYChris ButlerAssists: Jiri Hudler, Derek Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:47CGYSean MonahanAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 1:25DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 16:36DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 19:50CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:27DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:39CGYDavid Jones: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:27DETJoakim Andersson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:57DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 4:32DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:08CGYMikael Backlund: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:00DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 7:35CGYMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:41
xG 0.79–0.17 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Abdelkader – Andersson – Tatar3:00
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Weiss4:32
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Weiss – Abdelkader – Tatar5:47
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – DeKeyser14:05
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:35
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Quincey – Smith13:05
xG 0.15–0.70 (18%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Galiardi – Colborne10:45
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- McGrattan – Backlund – Bouma3:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan9:56
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Glencross10:11
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell15:09
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Smith7:35
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie15:49
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).