Sat, Nov 2, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 314 | 38 | 629 |
| BUF | 07 | 15 | 25 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:15BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 9:42ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Dustin Penner, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 15:18ANASami VatanenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:52ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 4:50ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 5:29ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Allen · Slap, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 6:52BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Cody Hodgson, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 14:59BUFTyler MyersAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 15:38ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:03ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:01BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 6:34ANAPeter Holland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:41BUFSteve Ott: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner7:56
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Perreault – Smith-Pelly – Etem5:43
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Bonino10:42
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon5:48
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm14:29
xG 1.36–0.25 (85%)attempts 19–8goals 3–0
- Allen – Fowler3:38
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Allen – Beauchemin3:59
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Stafford – Leino8:47
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Larsson – Flynn – Girgensons9:45
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Ott – Tropp – Foligno11:40
xG 0.06–0.61 (9%)attempts 5–13goals 0–3
- Moulson – Hodgson – Ennis13:47
xG 0.50–1.21 (29%)attempts 11–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Ristolainen16:45
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
- Myers – Zadorov13:44
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk16:58
xG 0.65–1.02 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).