Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 17 | 014 | 230 |
| TBL | 16 | 19 | 210 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 10:44TBLAlex KillornUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:45STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:37TBLBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:01TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Alex Killorn, Eric Brewer · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:53TBLValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P1 8:28STLJordan Leopold: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:18STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:22TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:40TBLMark Barberio: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:34STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:37
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:16
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves5:34
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart7:47
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk9:16
xG 0.37–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Leopold – Polak9:49
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:55
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos13:56
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Connolly2:45
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik3:35
xG 0.01–0.06 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Connolly – Palat5:36
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio11:19
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Salo – Hedman14:09
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Gudas13:15
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).