Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 07 | 08 | 121 |
| NJD | 05 | 06 | 03 | 014 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:23PHIMatt Read: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:18NJDEric Gelinas: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:08NJDDainius Zubrus: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:19PHIMatt Read: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:21PHIMatt Read: Charging2 min
- P2 11:27NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P3 3:59NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:33PHIHal Gill: Holding2 min
- P3 15:02PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:28NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Loktionov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:48
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl9:20
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:57
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – McGinn7:14
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:12
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann10:19
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gill – Meszaros10:44
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Loktionov7:35
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ryder – Tedenby – Henrique5:44
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:03
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Jagr – Zubrus – Henrique3:49
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Greene8:43
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson2:46
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:08
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).