Sat, Nov 2, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 19 | 210 | 531 |
| EDM | 06 | 04 | 04 | 014 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Daniel Cleary, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:36DETTomas TatarAssists: Joakim Andersson · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 6:55DETJakub KindlAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 7:54DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Drew Miller, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 9:43DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.10 xG5–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:53DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P1 5:59EDMAnton Belov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:38EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:35EDMBen Eager: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:50DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:01EDMRyan Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 8:47EDMBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:06DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:19DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:19EDMWill Acton: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Andersson – Tatar10:33
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Miller – Helm7:36
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Weiss7:07
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:28
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – DeKeyser13:16
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:44
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Arcobello – Yakupov2:29
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins3:51
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gordon – Jones – Hamilton2:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eager – Gazdic – Acton4:56
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry10:00
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Larsen – Belov11:47
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz15:26
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).