Sun, Nov 3, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 119 | 112 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 439 |
| OTT | 09 | 216 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03DALRay WhitneyAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:30DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Brenden Dillon, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 7:41OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:40OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 3:11DALAntoine RousselUnassisted · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:50OTTBobby RyanAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 5. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:49OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P1 6:55DALAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:41OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:57OTTChris Neil: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:32DALAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:03DALAlex Goligoski: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:25DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- OT 5:00OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Roussel – Garbutt7:34
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Whitney – Chiasson – Seguin7:19
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Eakin – Nichushkin8:08
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin2:25
xG 0.04–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon15:16
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Daley11:18
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Benn15:03
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Michalek – Smith6:13
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Zibanejad6:09
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Smith – Zibanejad5:17
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:56
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen18:24
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Phillips – Wiercioch10:52
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Methot – Borowiecki10:50
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).