Sun, Nov 3, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 110 | 18 | 11 | 330 |
| CHI | 018 | 112 | 114 | 00 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:25CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:15CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Dennis Wideman, Joe Colborne · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 2:16CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Chris Butler, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:41CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:32CGYKris RussellGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:07CGYBrian McGrattan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:03CHIMarian Hossa: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 13:40CGYChris Butler: Holding2 min
- P3 13:58CGYMatt Stajan: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Pirri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Galiardi – Colborne15:26
xG 1.00–0.48 (67%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Glencross14:44
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan11:08
xG 0.12–0.22 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Jackman – Backlund5:14
xG 0.16–0.31 (35%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell20:23
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 24–21goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Smith6:58
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie22:00
xG 0.80–1.05 (43%)attempts 12–28goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Pirri – Saad7:03
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw2:58
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig8:25
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Shaw – Saad4:28
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson18:29
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 29–12goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook17:35
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Leddy16:47
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).