Mon, Nov 4, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 26 | 06 | 013 | 225 |
| NYR | 010 | 115 | 08 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29ANACorey PerryAssists: Dustin Penner, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 9:09ANAKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 18:36NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:14ANAEmerson Etem: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:43ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:34ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:09NYRBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:10NYRDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner14:23
xG 1.82–0.54 (77%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Rakell12:32
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Perreault – Smith-Pelly – Etem8:28
xG 0.08–0.42 (15%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Palmieri9:45
xG 0.09–1.24 (7%)attempts 3–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Sbisa15:44
xG 1.57–0.73 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:31
xG 0.88–1.07 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler17:58
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin3:42
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Dorsett2:10
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Dorsett – Mashinter2:18
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Dorsett2:21
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore15:59
xG 1.12–0.25 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Stralman13:34
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto2:16
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).