Tue, Nov 5, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 013 | 19 | 04 | 2 | 336 |
| BOS | 118 | 04 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38DALJamie BennAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:16BOSTorey KrugAssists: Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 11:39BOSMilan LucicAssists: Dougie Hamilton, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 17:26DALVernon FiddlerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 2. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 3. BOS Jarome Iginla stopped
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 5. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
- 6. DAL Alex Chiasson stopped
- 7. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 8. DAL Rich Peverley scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:01DALRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:13DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:13DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:13BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:39BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:10DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07DALBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:46BOSReilly Smith: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:42BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42DALJamie Benn: Diving2 min
- P3 17:26BOSDennis Seidenberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Horcoff – Roussel – Garbutt4:36
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin11:02
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin13:14
xG 0.54–0.85 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Peverley4:26
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn12:15
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Daley10:03
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Robidas – Dillon16:21
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand10:08
xG 1.31–0.53 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:30
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith6:36
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:40
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk16:11
xG 1.11–0.63 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug10:10
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid3:44
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).