Tue, Nov 5, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 110 | 015 | 236 |
| WSH | 011 | 516 | 112 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:06WSHJohn CarlsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:21WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:38NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 6:50WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 8:10WSHAlexander UrbomAssists: Tom Wilson, Steve Oleksy · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 17:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 15:59WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mikhail Grabovski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:58WSHMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:37NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:09WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:18NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15NYIMatt Carkner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:57NYIThomas Vanek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:12WSHSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:04WSHJason Chimera: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:15WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:25NYIThomas Hickey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:24NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:24NYIPeter Regin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:24WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:24WSHTroy Brouwer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53NYIMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Clutterbuck – Grabner7:19
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Nelson8:13
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares14:51
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey9:51
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic17:51
xG 1.34–0.84 (62%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hickey5:27
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Carkner – Hickey10:54
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:50
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson7:11
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski11:26
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson7:43
xG 0.33–0.98 (25%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:08
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Urbom – Oleksy10:52
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt16:43
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).