Tue, Nov 5, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 08 | 27 | 424 |
| CBJ | 012 | 014 | 17 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:56OTTClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 3:02CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 13:55OTTChris NeilAssists: Jason Spezza, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 19:42OTTErik KarlssonENAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:08CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:08OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:52OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55OTTMatt Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:39CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:39OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:40CBJR.J. Umberger: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:59CBJJack Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:35CBJRyan Johansen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:27OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:21CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:45CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
- P3 14:24OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P3 14:24OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:24CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kassian – Grant – Conacher2:53
xG 0.04–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:34
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Zibanejad7:43
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Michalek – Smith9:04
xG 0.05–0.53 (9%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Borowiecki9:59
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gryba10:23
xG 0.31–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen17:24
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Atkinson – Johansen11:07
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov10:15
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Comeau – Collins – Chaput2:09
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu3:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray13:00
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Johnson12:41
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout13:09
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).