Tue, Nov 5, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 08 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 332 |
| MTL | 07 | 29 | 011 | 00 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38STLAlexander SteenAssists: David Backes · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:38MTLRene BourqueAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 14:49MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 10:31STLChris StewartAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Sobotka · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:51MTLAndrei Markov: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:03MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:54STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:54MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:19MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:01MTLLouis Leblanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:00STLRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:11STLDavid Backes: Penalty shot net displaced0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Sobotka – Stewart2:07
xG 0.60–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Oshie – Sobotka7:02
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart10:16
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie3:45
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:43
xG 1.03–0.62 (62%)attempts 27–15goals 1–1
- Leopold – Polak12:30
xG 0.15–0.47 (25%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:43
xG 0.22–0.90 (20%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSt. Pierre – Bourque – Eller3:44
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Leblanc7:15
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Parros – St. Pierre – White4:21
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival13:58
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban15:30
xG 1.45–0.67 (69%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Markov2:05
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz16:08
xG 0.29–0.58 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).