Tue, Nov 5, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 09 | 17 | 00 | 129 |
| CAR | 010 | 012 | 114 | 12 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 16:02PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 19:07CARJordan StaalAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- OT 2:40CARManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:36CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:32PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:42CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P2 1:14CARJustin Peters: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:10PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P2 19:31PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:08CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:08PHIMark Streit: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:08CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Schenn9:14
xG 1.11–0.22 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Read – Couturier2:49
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – McGinn3:31
xG 0.01–0.14 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hartnell – Giroux11:55
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Meszaros3:23
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gill – Meszaros8:26
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:06
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Dwyer – Nash8:13
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:23
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman7:27
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Staal – Lindholm7:38
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk15:38
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy11:34
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy2:36
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).