Tue, Nov 5, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 09 | 08 | 125 |
| MIN | 17 | 18 | 39 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Lance Bouma, Chad Billins · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:07MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 6:28MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 8:05MINJustin FontaineAssists: Matt Cooke, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 8:38MINZenon KonopkaAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 13:14MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:00CGYKris Russell: Interference2 min
- P1 15:03MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:11CGYLance Bouma: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:50MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:45CGYTim Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:45CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:45CGYTim Jackman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:45MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:32MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:57MINMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:57CGYTJ Galiardi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:11MINJason Pominville: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Bouma – Monahan4:49
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Jackman – Hudler – Monahan4:08
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- McGrattan – Jackman – Backlund4:17
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Glencross7:31
xG 0.10–0.38 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Brodie16:25
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Billins9:31
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell15:12
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle12:34
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine9:16
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter9:34
xG 0.02–0.12 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell7:48
xG 0.25–0.39 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin21:27
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Stoner – Scandella2:26
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon10:10
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).