Wed, Nov 6, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 18 | 09 | 129 |
| NYR | 29 | 211 | 15 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:08NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:13NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 13:10NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Brad Richards, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 14:34PITKris LetangPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.34 xG1–3
- P2 15:38NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Brad Richards, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 9:57NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:27NYRJohn Moore: Interference2 min
- P2 1:07NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:53PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 10:45NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:13NYRBenoit Pouliot: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 19:23PITChris Kunitz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:23PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:08NYRRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:31PITJoe Vitale: Interference2 min
- P3 16:31NYRBrad Richards: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:15PITCraig Adams: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:15PITTanner Glass: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:15PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:15NYRDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:15NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56PITRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Glass – Crosby2:50
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:35
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Sutter2:45
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna2:28
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bortuzzo4:18
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta3:19
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin10:44
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Dorsett – Brassard6:24
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin10:59
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller4:33
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:40
xG 0.72–0.83 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman11:40
xG 0.73–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Del Zotto – Moore13:41
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:23
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).