Wed, Nov 6, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 19 | 08 | 226 |
| ANA | 110 | 211 | 28 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25PHXShane DoanAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:00ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 12:40PHXMichael StonePPAssists: David Moss, Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:36ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 19:58ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 10:08ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:58ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P2 2:14ANABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:55ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:30ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:07PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37PHXKeith Yandle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:06PHXDavid Rundblad: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:13PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 19:47PHXAndy Miele: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47ANALuca Sbisa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:47PHXJordan Szwarz: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:47ANAKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47ANAMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Hanzal – Szwarz5:41
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal6:24
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker11:35
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss11:40
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Michalek12:00
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Yandle2:19
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner12:03
xG 0.89–0.18 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Smith-Pelly11:10
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Winnik – Cogliano – Rakell11:42
xG 0.34–0.56 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Palmieri – Etem9:51
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm16:33
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:31
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Sbisa17:08
xG 0.74–1.03 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).