Thu, Nov 7, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 09 | 17 | 124 |
| BOS | 07 | 19 | 314 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:17BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 4:09BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 8:57BOSTorey KrugAssists: Chris Kelly, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 14:25FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 18:13BOSReilly SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:20BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:20FLAJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:08BOSDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:27BOSCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:29BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:49FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:49BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:39BOSBrad Marchand: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:34
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Gomez – Barch – Kopecky2:45
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Matthias11:33
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Upshall – Versteeg – Barkov13:37
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:32
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Gilroy – Gudbranson10:53
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:54
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic13:11
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:12
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith9:24
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:05
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug10:58
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton9:13
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton5:49
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).