Thu, Nov 7, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 014 | 011 | 134 |
| OTT | 17 | 26 | 111 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:00OTTBobby RyanAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:31OTTMarc MethotGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 12:08OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:51OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:21MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 1:21OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:22MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:01OTTJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:20OTTClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P2 9:28MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:28OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:59OTTMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P2 16:02OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:51MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:40OTTCory Conacher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:30MTLRene Bourque: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:50MTLMichael Bournival: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:49
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty8:04
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Bournival11:01
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Parros – Moen – White2:26
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:11
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Diaz7:13
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban2:41
xG 0.08–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Conacher5:43
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith3:26
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Zibanejad3:13
xG 0.03–0.21 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Michalek – Smith4:04
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba2:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen10:41
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Methot – Borowiecki10:50
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).