Thu, Nov 7, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 08 | 29 | 325 |
| PHI | 08 | 06 | 08 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Eric Gelinas, Michael Ryder · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 3:01NJDCam JanssenAssists: Adam Larsson, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 19:58NJDJaromir JagrENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 10:18NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:45PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:07NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:34PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Loktionov11:13
xG 1.01–0.11 (90%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ryder – Tedenby – Henrique8:02
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Janssen – Gionta – Carter3:37
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bernier – Zajac – Brunner9:14
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Larsson8:43
xG 0.71–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky12:20
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Harrold14:52
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hall – Newbury – Rinaldo4:33
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Voracek – Schenn2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Giroux – Read3:34
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Couturier – Raffl9:55
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Coburn2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:31
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).