Thu, Nov 7, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Minnesota Wild 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 110 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 235 |
| WSH | 15 | 09 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:51MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:07MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Pominville, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 16:52WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Tom Wilson, Brooks Laich · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 2. MIN Jason Pominville stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 6. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:39WSHAaron Volpatti: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:51MINNate Prosser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:51MINJustin Fontaine: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:53MINMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:02WSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter10:14
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund2:23
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell6:08
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:01
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon11:36
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon4:03
xG 0.37–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLatta – Volpatti – Wilson4:19
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom13:34
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson11:47
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Grabovski13:10
xG 0.25–0.80 (24%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Urbom – Oleksy10:49
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt18:59
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:49
xG 0.35–1.21 (22%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).