Thu, Nov 7, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 0, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 07 | 09 | 021 |
| CAR | 17 | 011 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39CARRadek DvorakGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:23NYIPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:46CARRadek Dvorak: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 0:32CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:42NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:42CARBrett Bellemore: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:26CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:26NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:35NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:35CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:35NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:59CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bouchard – Bailey9:34
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares14:51
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:24
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Regin – Grabner – Nelson6:44
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Ness10:00
xG 1.03–0.11 (91%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:13
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic2:01
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty10:12
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Terry – Nash8:09
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Gerbe – Staal7:05
xG 0.22–0.47 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman7:40
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Murphy11:51
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk13:19
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Bellemore3:02
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).