Thu, Nov 7, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 02 | 010 | 28 | 220 |
| STL | 211 | 17 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 10:12STLMaxim LapierreAssists: Jordan Leopold, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:55STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jordan Leopold · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 4:41CGYTim JackmanAssists: Shane O'Brien, Chad Billins · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:49CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Chris Butler, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:02CGYMax Reinhart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:56CGYDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P1 8:39STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:39CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:40STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:40CGYTJ Galiardi: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:40CGYJoe Colborne: Interference2 min
- P1 19:45STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P2 3:35STLDerek Roy: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:54STLPatrik Berglund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:21STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:02STLJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:09STLVladimir Sobotka: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Reinhart – Monahan3:07
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Colborne3:50
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Galiardi – Colborne3:44
xG 0.08–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Galiardi3:49
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Billins6:04
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Butler3:39
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie3:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie7:28
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart8:37
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Cracknell – Reaves7:29
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:42
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:17
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Leopold – Shattenkirk3:55
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Leopold – Polak7:40
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).