Fri, Nov 8, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 015 | 111 | 02 | 0 | 135 |
| TOR | 08 | 08 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:12TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 15:15NJDMichael RyderPPAssists: Eric Gelinas, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mason Raymond stopped
- 2. NJD Michael Ryder stopped
- 3. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 4. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 5. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 6. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:36NJDMattias Tedenby: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:52NJDPeter Harrold: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:47TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:17NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:51TORNikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min
- P3 13:26TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Zajac – Brunner7:18
xG 0.40–0.01 (96%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter2:15
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Janssen – Gionta – Carter2:52
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Loktionov10:05
xG 0.45–0.52 (47%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Larsson9:35
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson2:28
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky12:09
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Raymond – Kadri11:19
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Smithson – McClement – Kulemin2:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – van Riemsdyk11:35
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin7:29
xG 0.02–0.32 (7%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Rielly5:55
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner7:57
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ranger – Fraser10:49
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).