Fri, Nov 8, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 0, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 015 | 017 | 041 |
| WPG | 413 | 010 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:47WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Keaton Ellerby · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 8:23WPGEric TangradiAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 16:45WPGDevin SetoguchiAssists: Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.26 xG0–4
- P3 9:53WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.22 xG0–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 18:44WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:44NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:48WPGAdam Pardy: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:48NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:37NSHTaylor Beck: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:55NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 19:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00NSHDavid Legwand: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45WPGEric Tangradi: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:50NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P3 15:27WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Bourque3:19
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Spaling – Wilson6:40
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Nystrom – Hornqvist6:04
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Beck4:50
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi10:54
xG 1.14–0.37 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Weber – Ekholm9:59
xG 0.82–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ellis – Jones7:50
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Setoguchi – Kane9:00
xG 1.27–0.33 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:43
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright6:47
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele11:14
xG 0.33–1.74 (16%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian13:06
xG 1.32–0.74 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Pardy – Ellerby10:35
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome14:34
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).