Sat, Nov 9, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 17 | 010 | 226 |
| CBJ | 12 | 114 | 313 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:25NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Eric Boulton, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:27CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 13:30NYIThomas HickeyAssists: John Tavares, Matt Donovan · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 0:27CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 3:24CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 18:52CBJJames WisniewskiENAssists: Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:31NYIEvgeni Nabokov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:57CBJBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:14NYIPeter Regin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:37NYIMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:45CBJArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:45NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:15NYITravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Regin – Martin4:30
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey4:32
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Okposo – Tavares11:48
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas3:48
xG 0.03–0.43 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Hamonic6:20
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic9:10
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Ness2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Johansen11:40
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Boll – Collins – Chaput8:00
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu9:35
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Umberger – Anisimov11:01
xG 0.19–0.61 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray15:00
xG 0.85–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Prout15:56
xG 0.55–0.75 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Johnson14:07
xG 0.14–0.45 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).