Sat, Nov 9, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 16 | 05 | 120 |
| STL | 09 | 111 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:52STLRyan ReavesAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:06PITJussi JokinenPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:52STLKevin ShattenkirkGWGAssists: Barret Jackman, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:03STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:34STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28PITDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:55PITTanner Glass: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:55STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:46STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vitale won the faceoff against Lapierre
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal7:51
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:59
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Sutter – Bennett3:50
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:17
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang5:20
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta3:24
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Maatta9:03
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie15:19
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Sobotka – Stewart8:47
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:27
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves4:54
xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk14:30
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:04
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole12:17
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).