Sat, Nov 9, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 211 | 210 | 531 |
| DAL | 111 | 113 | 09 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10DALCody EakinAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 16:51CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 6:54DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:19CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:15CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:19CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:53CHINiklas HjalmarssonENAssists: Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:07CHIBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:08CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:15CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39CHIPatrick Kane: Delaying game2 min
- P2 13:02CHIBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:52DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:12DALShawn Horcoff: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews12:43
xG 1.18–0.27 (82%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Kane – Pirri – Saad8:36
xG 0.78–0.31 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig10:04
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw3:56
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook11:21
xG 1.48–0.36 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Leddy11:18
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:54
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin11:58
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Roussel3:03
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Garbutt – Nichushkin6:56
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Nichushkin2:17
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Benn10:57
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon16:46
xG 0.44–1.34 (25%)attempts 18–18goals 1–3
- Daley – Goligoski15:00
xG 0.16–1.26 (11%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).