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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 9, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Washington Capitals 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4 (SO)

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WSH01331106020332
PHX1909214032435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:16PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:38WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Green, Michal Neuvirth · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:48WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:27WSHJoel WardAssists: Michael Latta, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P3 16:34PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Antoine Vermette, David Schlemko · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
  6. P3 18:14PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Antoine Vermette scored
  2. 2. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
  3. 3. PHX Mikkel Boedker scored
  4. 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 8:54WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:06PHXMikkel Boedker: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:54PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P1 16:54WSHAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 18:48PHXMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 3:28PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:00WSHSteve Oleksy: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 9:21WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game face off violation2 min
  9. P2 9:21WSHTroy Brouwer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 10:39PHXMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  11. P2 10:39WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P2 13:07WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
  13. P2 14:08PHXMikkel Boedker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  14. P3 2:03PHXLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
  15. P3 2:52PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 17:59WSHNate Schmidt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  17. P3 0:00PHXZbynek Michalek: Delaying game smothering puck2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
48% to win52% to win
← WSH attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Johansson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHPHX
32Shots on goal35
2.3Expected goals2.3
55Shot attempts60
39Faceoffs won42
7Power plays6
19Penalty minutes21
23Hits31
16Blocked shots14
1Giveaways6
3Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski9:28

    xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0

  2. Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom8:34

    xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  3. Erat – Brouwer – Backstrom3:40

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  4. Latta – Volpatti – Wilson5:04

    xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGreen – Schmidt14:25

    xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

  2. Urbom – Oleksy10:24

    xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  3. Alzner – Carlson15:24

    xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestVermette – Moss – Korpikoski3:44

    xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0

  2. Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker5:13

    xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  3. Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura2:56

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  4. Vermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker6:29

    xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestKlesla – Schlemko6:08

    xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1

  2. Michalek – Ekman-Larsson11:03

    xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0

  3. Yandle – Schlemko2:03

    xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.3 xGWSH 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #177 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.05 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).