Sun, Nov 10, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 18 | 226 |
| MTL | 010 | 310 | 111 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:46MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:23NYIPierre-Marc BouchardPPAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:14MTLLars EllerPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:04MTLMichael BournivalPPGWGAssists: Raphael Diaz, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 4:10NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 10:37MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:00MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:10NYIColin McDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 7:12MTLFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34NYIMichael Grabner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36NYIThomas Hickey: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:44MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:24NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:25NYIMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Martin – Cizikas5:25
xG 0.43–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bouchard – McDonald – Regin8:45
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson13:09
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey8:27
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Ness11:50
xG 1.03–0.37 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:37
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Hickey – Donovan13:23
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk12:08
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty10:24
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Moen – Bourque – Desharnais3:09
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bourque – Desharnais – Bournival8:40
xG 0.20–0.78 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz12:12
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban15:48
xG 0.72–0.63 (54%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Murray11:41
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).