Sun, Nov 10, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 111 | 17 | 327 |
| NYR | 111 | 19 | 29 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:33FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 11:20FLABrian CampbellAssists: Tom Gilbert, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 13:58NYRDerek DorsettAssists: Brian Boyle, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 0:46NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 6:16NYRMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 12:57FLABrian CampbellAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:03NYRChris Kreider: Charging2 min
- P1 16:02FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:16NYRBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:40NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:40FLATim Thomas: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:39FLAKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:32FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:45NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:44
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Boyes – Kopecky – Goc6:17
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Versteeg – Barkov6:49
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Barch – Bergenheim – Matthias3:17
xG 0.02–0.34 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Gilroy7:08
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson8:58
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Campbell – Gilbert9:39
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mashinter – Miller2:35
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dorsett – Brassard2:17
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello6:24
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Dorsett – Brassard3:50
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman9:27
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh8:44
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi2:15
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).