Mon, Nov 11, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 011 | 010 | 028 |
| BOS | 012 | 26 | 18 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:09BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 17:29BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Gregory Campbell, Matt Bartkowski · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 19:01BOSJarome IginlaENAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.64 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:37BOSChris Kelly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:30BOSDougie Hamilton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:02BOSGregory Campbell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:23TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:02BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Thompson – Purcell2:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:25
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Johnson3:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Panik – Palat3:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Hedman2:58
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman3:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas11:43
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:04
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic15:27
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:00
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Smith10:45
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski11:05
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton12:47
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug11:44
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).