Tue, Nov 12, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 115 | 015 | 112 | 03 | 0 | 245 |
| BUF | 04 | 13 | 19 | 01 | 2 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Slava Voynov · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 12:46BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Steve Ott, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:26BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 16:26LAKDwight KingAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 2. LAK Mike Richards stopped
- 3. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 4. LAK Trevor Lewis stopped
- 5. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:00LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:16BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:39BUFCody Hodgson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:34LAKJustin Williams: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41BUFSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:22BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:28BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – King – Toffoli10:24
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Fraser – Carcillo – Frattin7:47
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Vey – Nolan8:32
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:31
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez12:24
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:34
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 23–7goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Doughty3:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Moulson – Hodgson14:46
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- McCormick – Tropp – Grigorenko8:06
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Flynn – Girgensons12:18
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis8:19
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk17:29
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 12–25goals 1–1
- McBain – Ristolainen15:39
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Myers14:30
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).