Tue, Nov 12, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 18 | 25 | 02 | 327 |
| WSH | 07 | 113 | 212 | 12 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:50CBJBrandon DubinskySHAssists: Mark Letestu · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 14:00WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Martin Erat, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 8:56WSHJoel WardSHAssists: Alexander Urbom, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:22CBJJared BollAssists: James Wisniewski, Sean Collins · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 14:19CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 18:15WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jason Chimera, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:34WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:07WSHSteve Oleksy: Interference2 min
- P2 6:03CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:24CBJBlake Comeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:45CBJDerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:11WSHJoel Ward: Holding2 min
- P3 8:06WSHMike Green: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Johansen11:17
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Comeau – Letestu – Collins2:03
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boll – Collins – Chaput5:01
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Umberger – Anisimov10:03
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson17:19
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Prout12:16
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Murray17:39
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Grabovski11:48
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Latta – Volpatti – Wilson4:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Erat – Ovechkin – Backstrom13:10
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson14:26
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson18:55
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 22–20goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt15:42
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
- Urbom – Oleksy11:24
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).