Tue, Nov 12, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 09 | 12 | 02 | 2 | 321 |
| DET | 116 | 010 | 116 | 01 | 1 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:10WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:44DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 10:47WPGZach BogosianAssists: Olli Jokinen, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 13:11DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. WPG Devin Setoguchi scored
- 3. DET Daniel Alfredsson scored
- 4. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:28WPGGrant Clitsome: Holding2 min
- P1 9:05DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:02WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55DETJoakim Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:10WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:21WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:56DETJakub Kindl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:41
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Setoguchi – Kane15:43
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele11:03
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Tangradi – Wright5:50
xG 0.11–0.58 (17%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pardy – Ellerby12:16
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome16:10
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian17:48
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Franzen – Helm13:15
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:53
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Andersson2:29
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Andersson – Tatar8:05
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Kindl14:36
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:02
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Lashoff – Ouellet7:47
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).