Tue, Nov 12, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 217 | 011 | 06 | 11 | 335 |
| CGY | 03 | 03 | 26 | 01 | 213 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:04SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 6:51CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 10:25CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:13SJSBrad StuartGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:57CGYLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P1 18:58CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49SJSTyler Kennedy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kennedy – Couture11:46
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Wingels – Hertl14:24
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Havlat – Pavelski – Nieto11:16
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy7:01
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers15:01
xG 1.07–0.14 (88%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic18:36
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Stuart – Braun17:23
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak5:47
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Jones – Galiardi – Colborne2:53
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Baertschi – Monahan9:55
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan5:18
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Brodie2:27
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Smid6:07
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie18:29
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 9–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).