Wed, Nov 13, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 16 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 123 |
| MIN | 06 | 014 | 114 | 00 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:32TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P3 15:43MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 2. TOR Mason Raymond stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:07TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:53TORJoffrey Lupul: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:53MINCharlie Coyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:57MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:06TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P2 18:05TORMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:05MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:34TORJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:57TORJerred Smithson: Interference2 min
- P3 8:41TORNazem Kadri: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Smithson – McClement – Kulemin5:07
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri6:21
xG 0.13–0.39 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Raymond – Kessel – van Riemsdyk6:56
xG 0.40–0.70 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Fraser5:23
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Franson – Rielly2:57
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ranger – Rielly2:06
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle9:26
xG 0.80–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter6:46
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell3:08
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine9:30
xG 0.29–0.57 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin15:11
xG 0.98–0.06 (94%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon8:20
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Stoner – Prosser8:07
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).