Wed, Nov 13, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 110 | 03 | 221 |
| PIT | 016 | 19 | 06 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:02PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:29PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:40PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:04PHIBrayden Schenn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:51PHIJay Rosehill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:46PHIMark Streit: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:31PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:10PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10PITRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:10PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:46PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Read – Couturier13:11
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:46
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:41
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:15
xG 0.17–0.88 (16%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Grossmann4:09
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Gustafsson2:00
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn15:22
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal9:17
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby11:10
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Sutter – Bennett6:02
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:36
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland7:37
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang4:39
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang2:58
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).